Blogger’s Note - this is not a prop 14 election. There is a Primary and 7 weeks later, there will be a general.
This blogger has been at ground zero of the unfolding race coming to replace the late Dave Cox (R- Fair Oaks).
Assemblyman Roger Niello – endorsed by Dave Cox on his deathbed (literally). One of the last actions of Senator Cox was to write Niello $7,800 in checks for his campaign.
Roger Niello is a “Nice Guy” – to his credit, he stood up and appeared in public to take the heat even coming to CRA meetings after his vote for the largest tax increase in state history.
Niello will be vulnerable to two attacks – He endorses liberals and that vote for the Feb, 2009 budget – made worse by the fact that the State Budget continues to be a disaster.
Niello goes in to battle with the Dave Cox and Doug Ose endorsements. One could assume that Moderate Republican Congressman Dan Lungren will follow.
Assemblyman Ted Gaines – most likely will be endorsed by Tom McClintock.
Unlike Roger Niello – Ted Gaines has made very few phone calls. Gaines position is to wait until Arnold calls the special election. It is the opinion of this blogger and many other Conservatives that Arnold has waited until the end of the constitutional timeline on purpose and will call the special election at a time that most benefits Niello.
Too bad for them – Ted Gaines is sitting on $500,000.
Ted Gaines’ major achilles heel is he appears to be distant. For a varitey of reasons, this is a theme that has been repeated to this blogger – Niello’s habit of getting out in public is a distinct advantage for Niello. (a major reason Doug LaMalfa trounced Rick Keene was this exact perception)
Gaines will also have fence mending to do with local electeds from the John Doolittle debaucle in late 2007 – even more pointedly so with Doolittle’s long awaited exhoneration finally occurring.
Ted Gaines’ problems don’t stop there…
Enter Former Assemblywoman Barbara Alby. The source that told me Alby is running is as impeccable.
Barbara Alby is apparently convinced that her third place finish behind George Runner and Alan Nakanishi for Board of Equalization is behind her and that she will be able to get even with the resources of both Gaines and Niello.
One thing is clear – both Alby and Gaines in the race will give Niello a distinct advantage.
Other contestants – Rico Oller (endorsed Gaines), Dan Logue (decided against moving) have removed themselves from the picture.
So the question is: Will Niello get treated like Mike Villines who beat a nothing opponent by only 8,000 votes or will it resemble Abel Maldonado who trounced Sam Aanestad in the primary?
That is up to Ted Gaines.
Ted Gaines? He has never run a competitive race.
Neither had Doug LaMalfa. (LaMalfa won by 16 despite being outspent 2-1)
Gaines and LaMalfa have Dave Gilliard running their show – and Gillard made a believer out of this blogger in the June 2010 primary.
More to follow for sure…
If Arnold calls the special election to be held before the November election, does Ted Gaines have to resign his Assembly seat? Or does he have to win the Senate primary to be forced out of his seat?
I believe you have a few things wrong in your post.
First according to the last campaign filing Gaines has less than $400k ($17k in Senate account and $330K in Assembly) and it is Niello who has almost $500k. But gains has been burning up the phone lines 9 hours a day since Cox’s passing calling for money and endorsements.
This is a special election so it is an open primary- 50% +1 wins outright and no need for a further runoff. Democrats, Republicans and independents can vote for anyone.
My understanding is that the Governor will call the special election concurrent with the General election in the fall – forcing Gaines to be on the ballot twice.