Well gheez. Let me summarize for those of you with short attention spans. Pro-Life Conservatives romped all over the country. In California, the selected / preferred candidates were not Conservatives. Doug Ose, Jeff Gorrell, Brian Nestande and the extreme leftist Carl DiMaio were the preferred nominees for Congress.
Granted, I warmed up to the point of personally endorsing Doug Ose, and I also liked Jeff Gorrell a lot as well. But, all four of them lost.
I spoke to a Republican Consultant with connections all over the Country who told me that the big money was staying out of California or was withdrawing from California. This conversation was in Mid-September. The money people made a conscious decision to withdraw from California.
In addition – many of these moderate candidates for various reasons were not able to unify their base. Doug Ose, Jeff Gorrell and Carl DiMaio received millions in support. They all lost – Ose by the slimmest of margins.
However, four Conservatives running in races that were not regarded as top-tier did almost as well as the leading moderates did (all out performed DiMaio) with little or no funding! These would be Chris Mitchum, Dan Logue, Tony Amador and Paul Chabot. All four were unabashed social conservatives and all performed as well as other socially liberal candidates who were fully funded.
Let’s separate out Carl DiMaio – he was a disaster from the word go. It appears from people I have spoken to that he decided to run and was not recruited. However, the attention he got was absurd considering that the opposition research file on him is hundreds of pages and appears to lay out a pattern of sexual deviance. DiMaio was so far left on so many issues that a wide-range of people got sick to their stomachs and stayed home – this before the ghastly details of his behavior came out.
Brian Nestande in CA-36 was favored over Paul Chabot in CA-31. Nestande, a tax-raising liberal Republican got hammered. The DCCC / Pelosi PAC spent $2 million attacking Chabot and still only got a marginal victory for their man. The NRCC moved their HQ out of Chabot’s district to Nestande’s. As of the writing of this blog – Chabot is within 4 points.
Jeff Gorrell was an excellent candidate and the democrats ran a successful campaign against him using the flaws of another candidate on the ballot in order to suppress voter turnout among seniors. Again, however – there was a vicious and brutal primary in the accompanying assembly district that the wounds were not healed from. It took Gorrell down as well.
Doug Ose had a very liberal record when he served in Congress. He won a spirited primary against Igor Birman (who I supported). In this case – Doug Ose did reach out to groups hostile to him in the primary. The CRA took the unusual move of Post-Primary endorsing Doug Ose as a sign of party unity. However, many tea parties refused to return Ose’s phone calls and many organized an effort to sabotage Doug Ose’s campaign. As of the writing of this blog – there are about 6500 under-votes in the CA-07 race, suggesting that the Tea Party effort succeeded in re-electing liberal democrat Ami Bera. (Ose is losing by roughly 700 votes and will likely lose by about 1500 when the count is complete)
For various reasons – the Conservatives were thrown to the wolves. It was the prevailing wisdom that CA-03 (Dan Logue) was un-reachable because of the 10 point spread – now go explain Johnny Tacherra in CA-16… pro-life, pro-prop-8 and got within a couple hundred votes of entrenched incumbent Jim Costa in a -15 dem district? Tacherra was on no one’s radar. He is an unabashed conservative – endorsed pre-primary by the CRA.
Paul Chabot in CA-31 was given up for dead when he beat lobbyist and Washington DC insider Lesli Gooch in the CA-31 Primary. The DCCC hammered Chabot with Radio, TV and by Chabot’s count 26 pieces of mail. Chabot, a hard-core conservative came within 4 points.
Chris Mitchum and Tony Amador won contested primaries in CA-24 and CA-09 respectively – both came within 5 points of their dem incumbent opponents. In the case of Mitchum, the DCCC actually spent money against him!
No one gave Logue, Mitchum, Amador, Tacherra or Chabot the time of day – and their performance in the absence of funding indicates they would have won even with token amounts of help.
The big money people wrote off California.
The reasons why are not what many will say on the surface. The powers to be in California did not take a thorough enough look at the candidates and districts. I do not have enough data to suggest that GOP leadership discriminated against Conservatives.
Wealthy Financier Charles Munger did in state races. But, he is not the GOP leadership – despite the claims of some. Munger did not play IE’s in any congressional races in 2014 in California. Mr Munger lost roughly 80% of the races he spent in – but two key wins in dem-leaning districts he contributed significant IE’s to.
Congressional Races are more of a national flavor – people vote based on the direction of the country. This is the dynamic that IMO, the CA GOP leadership missed when picking their targets. All over the nation – Pro-Life and Pro-Family Conservatives destroyed their opponents.
I’d also be remiss if I did not mention that the “fit the district” argument is something that many in CA GOP leadership overuse. I believe that the candidate themself is far more important than the social issue demagoguery that sometimes happens in a campaign.
Look at NV-04. Right-Wing Conservative Rancher Crescent Hardy Took out Stephen Horsford a first term congressman that was a former speaker of the Nevada House. The district? -14 dem.
Instead, in California – we had some seriously flawed candidates who appear to have been poorly vetted by a shallow set of qualifications. Ugh. Or, worse, we had to react and deal with whomever ran…
Meanwhile – Paul Chabot, Johnny Tacherra, Chris Mitchum, Tony Amador and to a lesser extent Dan Logue all got left in the lerch and all could have won where their more moderate, more favored counterparts lost.
As of 11/9 - the Placer County Elections Office has Measure B passing with 62.35% of the vote.
This is an absolute landslide. You would think in a conservative county like Placer, that a measure that gives the County Supervisors a 138% pay raise would be stillborn.
Like anything on the ballot – see also Prop 47 that will put tens of thousands of dirtbags back on the streets – its’ mere presence is a threat.
In years’ past – the Placer GOP Central Committee has been a lightening rod and tremendously effective.
In 2008, the Placer GOP defied the establishment and endorsed Tom McClintock over Doug Ose. Tom Hudson was the Chairman at that time.
As a result of said endorsement – Republican electeds like Ted Gaines and Roger Niello both pulled their funding for voter registration bounty – because Central Committees “were not supposed to endorse”. Since that time the local electeds and the Placer GOP had been at odds until $85k of outside money came in and blew several “Undesireables” out of the Placer GOP in 2012.
I have told the story repeatedly about the chain of events surrounding Doug LaMalfa’s senate campaign, the un proven charges and the idiots in the local tea parties that were recruited in a Jihad against the leadership of the Central Committee, but…
… The other side of the lynching of the Conservatives off of the Placer GOP Central Committee by Ted Gaines, Beth Gaines, Jim Nielsen, Doug LaMalfa and GOP Leadership (funded by Charles Munger at the behest of someone who may or may not have been Connie Conway to avenge Beth Gaines) has now come home to roost.
The majority on the Central Committee are Tea Partiers that are still under the effects of their brainwashing. They vote in lock-step with the do-nothing Moderate Leadership. And, while Dennis Revell was quoted recently talking about how liberal Art Moore is, do not forget, Revell is a social liberal and his closest allies on the Cent Com are open in their hostility towards religious Conservatives.
The Tea Partiers did next to nothing in Placer County. Ed Rowen – who had his character assassinated by Dennis Revell only a few months earlier, led volunteers to walk 35 precincts for Tom McClintock. By himself, Mr. Rowen, the President of the Placer CRA, who was specifically targeted by Dennis Revell and the Tea Partiers on the Placer GOP Cent Com – outperformed the entire Central Committee’s volunteer effort.
However, Beth Gaines, Ted Gaines, Jim Nielsen and Doug LaMalfa in particular needed to make sure that they had their revenge for the PCRA and its’ members not supporting any of them despite the fact that none of them have done a thing for the Placer GOP – in fact, they gutted the Placer GOP Cent Com and did less than nothing for the GOP in Placer County now.
When Jeff Atteberry was told he was done as Cent Com Chairman, he was told that the $40k he had raised as Cent Com Chair was a failure. Please note that had it not been for a golf tournament run by CRA Member Ken Hubert – the Placer GOP Cent Com would have raised negative money and to this day, the dwindling balance in the accounts were left over from the ousted PCRA Leadership.
But Gaines, Gaines, Nielsen and LaMalfa got their revenge. Apparently, in their mind, who cares if the local party is dead as long as people they don’t like are not a part of it?
Meantime – Measure B Passed in a landslide.
You see, the Cent Com Railroaded a no on B position without ever giving the yes side a chance to speak. Tom Hudson and Ken Campbell, arguably the two most Conservative activists in Placer County, both former Cent Com Chairs were the leaders of the No on B campaign. You would think that two men with their influence, backed by an official GOP endorsement in a GOP year would have slain Measure B.
They had no back up from the Cent Com. While the local Tea Parties were furious over the “Pay Raise Thing”, they did next to nothing. This could have been the Placer GOP’s chance to shine. Instead, it exposed the ineptitude of the Placer GOP Cent Com.
The one piece of mail that was sent was basically paid for by Tom McClintock. There were some poorly homemade signs about No on B done independently, there was an email from Tom Hudson and a Robo-Call from Tom Hudson and that was the extent of the No on B campaign.
The Placer GOP Central Committee did no phone banking, walked no precincts and donated nothing to or for local elected candidates. Is this what Gaines, Gaines, LaMalfa and Nielsen wanted?
The Central Committee has become so ineffective that the Vice-Chair of the County Party (Mike Holmes)was defeated for re-election to the Auburn City Council!
The leadership of the GOP have a hard choice to make – reconcile with the people they have disagreed with in the past – or continue to #EPICFAIL. It really isn’t that hard.
However, the GOP leadership have an immediate problem on the Placer GOP. They need to get rid of Dennis Revell. He has failed miserably. His record is as follows:
$2k raised in two years. (Outside of McClintock effort for mailer)
Attacking and alienating the best volunteer in Placer County who single-handedly outperformed the entire Central Committee’s Volunteer Effort.
Inability to muster volunteers. The Placer GOP did no phone-banking and no precinct walking at all in 2014 for the local electeds at all.
The Vice Chair of the Central Committee Losing Re-Election for Auburn City Council.
Not a single dollar contributed to a Placer GOP endorsed candidate while the Dem Cent Com handed out nearly $5k.
Measure B passes with 62+% of the vote despite the heroic efforts of Ken Campbell and Tom Hudson.
The above is the definition of failure.
I am not suggesting that I am the solution. I named my kidney stones after Jim Nielsen and Doug LaMalfa for pete’s sake and worked for Beth and Ted’s primary opponents in 2012! Rather, the immediate answer to the Placer GOP’s leadership problem is within its’ own ranks.
With the humiliation of Mike Holmes and Dennis Revell, Tom Hudson and Ken Campbell could be the exact back to the future that the Placer GOP needs.
The last time GOP registration grew was under Ken Campbell’s tenure. He is a donor to all my favorite partisan electeds. Ken Campbell got it done, the GOP needs him back. Tom Hudson would be excellent as a #2. Tom is #2 material all the way with his knowledge of the CRP apparatus, the bevy of by-laws and campaign finance laws.
Ken Campbell is deep within the national ranks of the Tea Party. If anyone could rally the tea party to get off the overpasses and in to donating money and manning phone banks, it is Ken.
It is time to go back to the future. The Placer GOP should never be in a place again when a grotesque waste of money like measure B passes with the GOP powerless to do anything about it.
When you’re a democrat, you never EVER acknowledge the reasons for your electoral defeat.
In 2012, when Romney lost a race he should have won – the pundits came out in force, but the GOP leadership figured out quickly what went wrong and took steps to fix the issues. The results on 11/4/2014 bear it out.
Then there is Ami Bera – his campaign people are screaming racism, claiming that Ose’s people are purposely challenging Woman or Latino Ballots. Of Course, in the process of trying to create this lie, they omit that it is impossible to see names on ballots from a distance. They also omit that 90% of the challenges are automatic per statute and are not subjective.
When you’re a a whore with a worn-out playbook, you’re stuck. Demagogue the Uteris, Demagogue Race in the absence of issues. It backfired spectacularly – for US Senator Mark Udall, his whoring out the Abortion Issue got so bad that the flaming communists at the Denver Post called him “Senator Uteris” and endorsed his Republican opponent (who is a pro-life Christian). Republicans only lost women by a slim margin nationally.
However, the fraud doctor and the idiots on his staff missed the memo. Republicans won Asians 50-49 after scoring only 27% in 2012. The Latino Vote went from 27-36% as well.
Still the kool-aid drinking cylon-robots on the Fraud Doctors’ staff are telling the world they think they have lost. The following is from Doug Ose’s campaign chief:
As we head into the week after Election Day, we are still in the process of verifying and counting ballots. As supporters of Doug Ose’s campaign, you have been a critical reason why Doug is in such a strong position. Our success has put Congressman Bera in a very difficult position, so much so that his campaign is becoming more shrill by the day. Why has the Bera campaign become so shrill? It’s simple: Congressman Bera, one of President Obama’s foot soldiers whose support for policies was soundly rejected on Election Day, is on the verge of losing his job.
Here is what we know and why Congressman Bera is desperate:
- Doug Ose leads Incumbent Congressman Ami Bera in the race for CA-07 by 2,183 votes.
- The Sacramento County Registrar of Voters estimates about 79,000 ballots remain in Sacramento County (70,000 of which are vote by mail ballots and 9,000 are provisional ballots). The campaign estimates about 65% of those ballots will fall in CA-07, which means that there are about 50,000 ballots still to be counted.
- The Ose campaign only needs to receive 48% of the remaining vote to win this seat outright. Thus far, Doug has received 49.1% of the absentee ballot vote to date and won Election Day voters by six points.
Activities at the Sacramento County Registrar of Voters
On Wednesday (11/5) morning at 8am, the Ose campaign had four election observers at the Sacramento County Registrar of Voters office. The Assistant Registrar, Alice Jarboe, explained to the Ose campaign the rules and guidelines to participate as official election observers. Nowhere to be found was Congressman Bera’s campaign – they missed the entire day.
(This shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone – this is true to form for Congressman Bera. While Bera was in Congress, time and time again he skipped out on his own small business workshops and drought workshops in the district.)
Forty-eight hours after Election Day, the Bera campaign and surrogates decided to show up and make outlandish and baseless accusations. Their strategy of throwing anything and everything against the wall in the hopes it sticks is the absolute lowest point in their campaign of desperation.
Why stoop so low?
The Bera campaign wants to set up the notion that this was not a fair election and that it was stolen from them. Bera is attempting to establish the narrative that ballots are being wrongfully discarded. This claim is absurd and it’s an insult to the professionalism of the Registrar’s office and the people of Sacramento County.
The county office is following the state’s election law and established local procedures. They have done an excellent job of carefully reviewing every ballot cast to ensure all legal votes are counted. Validating signatures is important to ensure the election is fair. For Congressman Bera that’s not good enough. He wants ballots that don’t meet legal criteria – a matching signature – to be counted. His campaign is attempting to bully the Registrar in a desperate attempt to hold on to power. Doug Ose will not stand by as Congressman Bera and his Washington, D.C. allies attempt to wage an intimidation campaign. We have no problem taking our message directly to the voters once again.
What is really going on?
What will happen when the vote goes final and Congressman Bera loses this election? He’ll launch an election campaign for 2016 and use this “social injustice” as his platform.
I am sure the Bera campaign will say all of these claims are fanciful.
We shall see.
Campaign Strategist, Ose for Congress
All but 2 of the Placer CRA Endorsed Candidates Won Their Elections. All of the recruits by Liberal Democrat Activist Rene Aguilera were defeated soundly.
In Auburn – Matt Spokely and Bridget Powers won a commanding 1-2 victory
In Loomis – Baker, Black and Ucovich won an astounding victory… unseating Liberal Democrat Sandra Calvert in the process.
In Loomis – Mike Edwards beat a democrat challenger by 19% in his school board race.
In Rocklin, CRA endorsed first time candidate Susan Halldin finished first, and CRA Endorsed Wendy Lang and Todd Lowell finished second and third. The first of Rene Aguilera’s recruits for office – William White, finished fourth. White’s presence on the ballot forced the Rocklin Unified School District to spend some $40k to stage the election.
In Roseville – Rene Aguilera forced the Roseville City School District to spend $50k or more putting on an election as he got a last minute filer to put the vote for three race on the ballot. The only Republican, Susan Duane – endorsed by CRA finished first in a landslide.
In the Roseville Joint Union High School District – Rene Aguilera’s Recruits were crushed by Linda Park and Scott Huber. Park and Huber got more than double the votes of their challengers. Park and Huber were endorsed by CRA. Rene Aguilera forced the RJUHSD to spend over $100k on this election as his unfunded recruits mounted little or no campaign, making people wonder why they filed.
In the Roseville City Council – CRA endorsed Susan Rohan scored an astounding 42.3% of the vote in a vote for two race with four candidates on the ballot. Tim Herman finished second at 32.1% and Rene Aguilera despite huge name ID was buried at 18%.
In the Lincoln City Council Race, the CRA only endorsed Stan Nader who almost doubled the vote total of the second place finisher Gabe Hydrick.
In the much talked-about CA-04 Race. CRA-Endorsed Tom McClintock holds a 20+% lead.
While the CRA did not take a position on Measure B – it cruised to victory, commanding 62.35% of the vote. More will be written on that later.
Rene Aguilera was humiliated across the board. He forced districts to spend roughly $200k between them because his recruits who (except for Jay Song) all pulled and filed for office at the last minute. This is a standard tactic of a provocateur.
For the first time in his political life – Aguilera was held accountable for his life and his actions. He has said publicly that he intends to run for Roseville City Council Again in 2016. We will be waiting for him to pull and file on the last day as usual and we will re-start the meat grinder for him and anyone else we deem that is tied to him.
The CRA was the big winner – look at the number of first-place finishes by our endorsed candidates. You would be hard pressed to find a more effective Republican group in the state!
As of the time I am writing this post, the election results are stunning. But, if you think it through, not really.
In 2012 – the story was the wealthy GOP Financier Charles Munger and his limitless resources catapulting Moderate Republicans Frank Bigelow and Rocky Chavez in to safe, Conservative GOP seats. The same was also true of Congressman Paul Cook in CA-08, a very conservative desert seat.
A closer look at those races shows that the more conservative opponents in all three seats were terribly flawed candidates, and when juxtaposed with results in 2014 – those flawed candidates likely had more to do with the success of the more moderate winners.
Fast forward to 2014. In AD-73, Bill Brough was outspent 7-1 by Anna Bryson who benefited from $500k in outside money. Brough finished first, Bryson 5th in that Primary. Brough is trouncing his dem opponent in the general.
In AD-44, Conservative Pastor Rob McCoy defeated a more moderate and very well funded opponent. But, similar to the above three Conservatives in 2012, McCoy appeared to have similar baggage and is trailing by 3%. I seriously doubt that his 26 year old primary opponent would have done better against the Democrat.
In AD-74 – we have an R vs R runoff that pitted underfunded CRA-Endorsed Conservative Matthew Harper against Keith Curry. Curry had the full support of GOP leadership and hundreds of thousands of dollars in his warchest. He also was the beneficiary of massive Independent expenditures. Harper is leading by 18% with the count nearly complete.
In SD-28 and CA-25, both R vs R runoffs – Flawed Conservative Jeff Stone is leading Bonnie Garcia despite being put through a meat grinder. Stone narrowly missed a CRA endorsement while Bonnie received no support from CRA due to her lifetime 61% CRA Score. Garcia may still win – but based on other races I have observed, it does not look likely.
CA-25 – pitted Tony Strickland, endorsed by Kevin McCarthy and the establishment against CRA-Endorsed Steve Knight. As of the writing of this blog, Knight leads 8.6% with 63.7% in.
The shocker that no one paid much attention to is in AD-26. This is the seat of former permanent minority leader Connie Conway. The Mark Abernathy establishment had lined up Rudy Mendoza to be the heir apparent. Not so fast – a longshot conservative military veteran slipped in to the runoff. With 97% of the vote in, Devon Mathis is scoring an astounding 10.6% victory.
The lesson here about Prop 14 is that effective Conservative Candidates are nearly unbeatable regardless of the money spent against them. Some may point to the reduced turnout, but the pattern is irrefutable. The stated goal of Prop 14 was to moderate politics. It has only succeeded in making races even more expensive and driving voter turnout down – giving the more partisan high-propensity voters an even bigger say.
Look at the horrific vote totals in D vs D races.
Last, but not least is the R vs R runoff in CA-04. The field was cleared enabling challenger Art Moore to challenge Tom McClintock. The papers all endorsed Moore. The storyline was about how extreme McClintock was.
That only succeeded in enabling McClintock to paint his opponent in to a corner, this time, it was the moderate that was underfunded and McClintock crushed Art Moore, leading by 20.4% with 83.9% of the vote in.
The problem is that McClintock is the kind of representative a suburban / rural district wants in Washington… someone who takes a hard line. What ever happened to the famous “fit the district” argument that gets used constantly to justify establishment support of moderates?
When you compare the turnout in CA-04 to neighboring CA-07, one of the top targeted Congressional Seats in America… Art Moore has gotten more votes than Doug Ose who is headed to a likely victory in CA-07 over the democrat (the fraud doctor Ami Bera). Ose is up 3184 votes with 50,000 late absentees left to count.
I believe that the labor unions will take a run at qualifying a ballot measure to repeal prop 14. Prop 14 has proven to be a disaster for the Democrats as the intended result of moderation has hit them in spades.
Example – in SD-06, the more moderate Richard Pan is beating Labor Union Darling Roger Dickinson. This is a really bad beat for the Unions.
There are a ton of other D vs D races – a ton of them where union people have been forced to spend a bank vault to protect their interests. They can’t be happy about this.
I leave you with AD-16, where Moderate Republican Catherine Baker is running in a Bay Area Assembly District with an 8 point dem advantage. She is leading by 5+ points and the lead is creeping up as the updates come in (we are at 72.4% now) – the hypothesis is working in reverse. The unions dumped a ton of money in to the primary to get their guy Tim Sbranti nominated. Sbranti is a deeply flawed candidate known for a hair-trigger temper and an acerbic personality.
Similar to the above mentioned flawed conservatives losing, we have a flawed communist losing what should be a democrat seat.
It is a brave new Prop 14 world and all the Independent Expenditures in the world can’t fix it.